We continue reviewing the rise of the Taliban as seen through US State Department cable traffic. The declassified documents can be found at George Washington University's website; here we review a cable dated September 6, 1995 about the situation as the Taliban forces approach Kabul and take over in Herat.
SUBJECT: AFGHANISTAN: HEAVY FIGHTING RAGES WEST OF KABUL; HERAT CALM AFTER TALIBAN TAKE-OVER
1. CONFIDENTIAL -- ENTIRE TEXT.
HERAT SITUATION
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2. AFTER TAKING HERAT SEPTEMBER 4, THE TALIBAN ISSUED A PUBLIC ANNOUNCEMENT DECLARING A THREE-DAY HOLIDAY AND URGING RESIDENTS TO REMAIN CALM. THE CITY IS REPORTEDLY PEACEFUL, WITH U.N. OFFICIALS LEAVING HERAT FOR MASHHAD -- NOT BECAUSE OF THE SECURITY SITUATION BUT TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THE IMPROMPTU HOLIDAY. ISMAEL KHAN, ACCOMPANIED BY BETWEEN 300-600 OF HIS FOLLOWERS, IS SAID TO HAVE LEFT TAYBAT FOR MASHHAD. IRANIAN BORDER OFFICIALS, HOWEVER, DISARMED THE FLEEING GOVERNOR AND HIS ENTOURAGE BEFORE ADMITTING THEM TO THE COUNTRY. KHAN'S RETINUE INCLUDES MEMBERS OF A NEGOTIATING BODY FROM KABUL (DEFENSE MINISTRY SPOKESMAN AND KEY MASOOD ADVISOR DR. ABDULLAH, SAID NURULLAH, AND OTHERS, ALTHOUGH DR. ABDULLAH HAS NOW RETURNED TO KABUL), WHO WERE CAUGHT BY SURPRISE BY THE SUDDEN TALIBAN ADVANCE INTO HERAT. OTHERS FROM THE GROUP, INCLUDING SIDDIQUE CHAKIRI, PRESIDENT RABBANI'S ECONOMIC ADVISOR, WERE LESS LUCKY AND ARE NOW IN THE HANDS OF THE TALIBAN.
Ismael Khan's abandonment of Herat was considered by analysts at the time to be something that would cost him his political future. However, as historical events show, that turned out not to be the case.
KABUL CONDITIONS
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3. TALIBAN FORCES AT MAIDAN SHAHR ATTACK MASOOD'S POSITIONS JUST WEST OF KABUL AT COMPANY, ON THE NIGHT OF SEPTEMBER 5. MASOOD ALSO HAS COUNTER-ATTACKED THE FORMER SAYYAF COMMANDER, SHER ALAM, WHO DEFECTED TO THE TALIBAN TWO DAYS BACK. RABBANI REPORTEDLY CHAIRED AN EMERGENCY MEETING ON THE AFTERNOON OF SEPTEMBER 5 TO DISCUSS HOW THE KABUL GOVERNMENT SHOULD REACT TO THE LOSS OF HERAT. KABUL ENVOY MASOOD KHALILI TOLD POLOFF SEPTEMBER 6 THAT RABBANI REMAINS SUPPORTIVE OF A U.N./OIC EFFORT TO REACH A PEACEFUL SOLUTION TO THEIR CRISIS, AND WOULD WELCOME MESTIRI'S PROMPT RETURN TO THE REGION. HOWEVER, KHALILI ACKNOWLEDGED THAT THE "RABBANI FORMULA" FOR PROVINCIAL REPRESENTATION WOULD NOW GIVE A MAJORITY OF THE SEATS TO THE OPPOSITION -- BUT HE INSISTED THAT A "FAIR" SELECTION PROCESS WOULD RETURN A MAJORITY FOR JAMIAT. KHALILI SEEMED CONFIDENT THAT THE KABUL GOVERNMENT WOULD BE ALBE TO HOLD ITS OWN MILITARILY, ALTHOUGH HE PREDICTED AN ISMAEL KHAN COUNTER-ATTACK WAS STILL SOME DAYS OFF. AS INDICATION OF THE CURRENT EXCITEMENT OVER THE FALL OF HERAT, A RUMOR SWEPT ISLAMABAD AFGHAN WATCHER CIRCLES (BOTH JOURNALISTS AND DIPLOMATS) LATE SEPTEMBER 5 THAT FORMER COMMUNIST GENERAL BABA JAN HAD SUCCESSFULLY STAGED A COUP D'ETAT AGAINST RABBANI -- A RUMOR, OF COURSE, WHICH SHORTLY TURNED OUT TO BE FALSE.
It was "predicted an Ismael Khan counter-attack was still some days off" -- to say the least; Khan was in Iran, the forces accompanying him disarmed.
ELSEWHERE...
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4. HEAVY FIGHTING BY JAMIAT FORCES AGAINST HEKMATYAR COMMANDER ZARDAD RAGED SEPTEMBER 5 AS THE KABUL GOVERNMENT SOUGHT TO SECURE ITS LAND ROUTE TO JALALABAD. HEKMATYAR'S OFFICIALS CLAIM ZARDAD HELD ONTO THE LATABAND ROAD, BUT ADMIT THAT CASUALTIES ON BOTH SIDES WERE HEAVY -- MORE FIGHTING IS PREDICTED. ZARDAD, MORE OF A BANDIT THAN A COMMANDER, IS NONETHELESS SAID TO BE A GOOD FIGHTER; MOST BET THAT MASOOD WOULD DO BETTER TRYING TO BUY HIM THAN DEFEAT HIM. IN JAMIAT'S HEARTLAND, BADAKHSHAN PROVINCE, PROMINENT COMMANDER BASIR ANNOUNCED HIS DEFECTION TO DOSTAM. JUMBEST OFFICIALS PREDICT THAT THEY WILL SOON TAKE KUNDUZ, BUT THE KABUL GOVERNMENT CLAIMS TO BE HOLDING ITS OWN THERE. FINALLY, U.N. OFFICIALS HAVE CONFIRMED THAT DOSTAM'S FORCES UNDER THE COMMAND OF RASUL PAHLAWAN TOOK TORGHUNDI ON THE TURKMENISTAN BORDER -- JUMBEST HAS INSTRUCTED PAHLAWAN TO AVOID CONTACT WITH THE TALIBAN AND UNDER NO CIRCUMSTANCES TO ENGAGE THEM.
Keep in mind Jalalabad's importance, as it sits astride the major road that leads from Kabul to the Khyber Pass, and from there down into Pakistan. A threat to the land route from Kabul to Jalalabad is very serious to any government in Kabul.
Badakhshan Province is the extreme northeasternmost tip of Afghanistan, including the little piece that juts eastward toward China.
We previously met General Dostum in Afghan Government Tries to Arrest General Dostum and General Dostum and the Heroin Trade.
5. LATE BREAKING NEWS . . .: THE PAKISTANI FOREIGN MINISTRY SAYS IT IS RECEIVING INITIAL REPORTS THAT AN ANGRY CROWD OF DEMONSTRATORS IN KABUL HAS CONVERGED ON THE PAKISTANI EMBASSY AND HAS SET FIRE TO THE BUILDING. MFA DIRECTOR FOR AFGHANISTAN, M. NAEEN KHAN, SAYS HE CANNOT GET THROUGH TO THE EMBASSY (NOT A GOOD SIGN) AND CONFIRMS THAT THE AMBASSADOR, A SECOND SECRETARY AND THE DEFENSE ATTACHE, AS WELL AS SUPPORT STAFF, ARE IN RESIDENCE IN KABUL AT THIS TIME. THE U.N. SAYS ITS OFFICIALS REPORT AN ANGRY MOB OF SEVERAL HUNDRED CONVERGING IN THE AREA OF THE PAKISTANI EMBASSY, CHANTING SLOGANS BLAMING ISLAMABAD FOR THE FALL OF HERAT. SMOKE IS SAID TO BE RISING IN THE VICINITY OF THE PAK EMBASSY, BUT THE U.N. CANNOT CONFIRM AFP REPORTS THAT BOTH THE PAK AND ADJACENT BRITISH MISSIONS HAVE BEEN SET ALIGHT, NOR DO THEY HAVE INFORMATION ON THE PRESS REPORTING OF THREE INJURED PAKISTANI OFFICIALS. WE WILL KEEP THE DEPARTMENT INFORMED AS WE GET ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.
Now why were the crowds of people blaming Pakistan for the fact that the Taliban had taken Herat?
Do you suppose the crowds knew something?
COMMENT
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6. THE SITUATION REMAINS VERY FLUID, WITH INDIVIDUAL COMMANDERS ATTEMPTING TO ASSESS WHO HAS THE UPPER HAND, AND WHEN TO SWITCH SIDES. THE MILITARY SIGNIFICANCE OF THESE SHIFTS REMAINS TO BE SEEN, ALTHOUGH THEY DO ADD TO THE OPPOSITION'S MORALE BOOST. THERE ARE SOME INITIAL INDICATIONS OF DIVISIONS BETWEEN MASOOD AND RABBANI, AS WELL AS MASOOD AND DR. ABDUR-RAHMAN AND GENERAL FAHIM -- THESE MAY INCREASE AS PRESSURE ON THE KABUL GOVERNMENT MOUNTS. THE BOTTOM LINE, HOWEVER, REMAINS THAT MASOOD'S MILITARY REMAINS THE MOST CAPABLE FORCE IN AFGHANISTAN -- WHETHER THEY HAVE BEEN SHAKEN UP ENOUGH TO CAVE TO THE TALIBAN IS STILL IN DOUBT.
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