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CHERNYSHEV FAILS TO TAKE THE BAIT
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8. (C) CHERNYSHEV BLANDLY OBSERVED THAT RUSSIA CONTINUES TO SUPPORT THE UN MISSION AND STANDS READY TO COORDINATE WITH US TO ENHANCE THE MISSION'S EFFECTIVENESS. [redacted] NOTION THAT MEST [redacted] REGARDING AN ARMS EMBARGO, CHERNYSHEV ASSERTED THAT RUSSIA FAVORS A SYSTEM TO CONTROL THE FLOW OF ARMS TO AFGHANISTAN, BUT ADDED THAT HE DOES NOT YET SEE ANY EFFECTIVE MECHANISM FOR DOING SO. LATER IN THE MEETING, HOWEVER, TRUBNIKOV SPOKE APPROVINGLY OF THE POLITICAL VALUE OF AN ARMS EMBARGO, CALLING IT THE BEST POSSIBLE EVIDENCE THAT THE INTERESTED OUTSIDE POWERS NO LONGER BELIEVE IN A MILITARY SOLUTION.
9. (C) IN HIS OTHER COMMENTS ABOUT THE AFGHAN SITUATION, CHERNYSHEV SIAD THAT
-- THE GOR IS NOT SUPPLYING ARMS TO ANY FACTION
[redacted]
-- RUSSIA TRIES TO MAINTAIN CONTACTS WITH ALL THE MAJOR AFGHAN GROUPS, THOUGH OBVIOUSLY THEIR CONTACTS ARE WEAKEST WITH THE TALIBAN.
-- MOST AFGHAN FACTIONS TELL MOSCOW THAT RUSSIA HAS A USEFUL ROLE TO PLAY IN THEIR COUNTRY. CHERNYSHEV ADDED, HOWEVER, THAT SOME OF THE SAME FACTIONS THEN TURN AROUND AND COMPLAIN ABOUT RUSSIAN IMPERIALISM TO THE IRANIANS AND PAKISTANIS. THERE IS NOTHING UNUSUAL ABOUT SUCH MANIPULATION, HE SAID, AND RUSSIA TAKES IT IN STRIDE.
[redacted]
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THE KANDAHAR HOSTAGES
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10. (C) RAPHEL, WHO HAD MET RECENTLY WITH THE RUSSIAN AIR CREW BEING HELD BY THE TALIBAN IN KANDAHAR, DESCRIBED THE HOSTAGES AS REASONABLY FIT AND HEALTHY. SHE PASSED CHERNYSHEV A VIDEO AND SOME PHOTOGRAPHS TAKEN DURING THE MEETING. ALTHOUGH THE TALIBAN SEEM TO FEEL THAT THE SEVEN HOSTAGES ARE SOMEHOW ACCOUNTABLE FOR ALL THE SINS -- PAST AND PRESENT, REAL AND IMAGINED -- OF RUSSIA AND THE USSR AGAINST AFGHANISTAN, RAPHEL SAID THAT THE TALIBAN NEVERTHELESS SEEM TO REALIZE THAT THEY HAVE LOST THE MORAL ARGUMENT FOR CONTINUING TO HOLD THE CREW. THE DETENTION OF THE RUSSIANS CONTINUES, HOWEVER, BECAUSE A) THE TALIBAN HAVE BOXED THEMSELVES IN BY PLACING IMPOSSIBLE DEMANDS ON THEIR RELEASE; AND B) THE TALIBAN SUPPOSEDLY MAKE DECISIONS BY CONSENSUS, BUT HAVE NO MECHANISM FOR DOING SO; THEY THEREFORE CLAIM VAGUELY THAT THE MUST "CONSULT WITH THE PEOPLE" BEFORE RELEASING THE HOSTAGES. [redacted] CONCLUDED BY NOTING THAT THE PAKISTANI INTE[redacted]
What did the Taliban really think they were going to get in exchange for the Russian aircrew?
11. (C) CHERNYSHEV EXPRESSED APPRECIATION FOR THE ASSISTANT SECRETARY'S READOUT OF THE HOSTAGE SITUATION AND FOR THE U.S. EFFORTS TO FREE THE RUSSIAN AIR CREW.
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CIS ANXIETIES
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12. (C) RELATING HER CONVERSATIONS WITH CENTRAL ASIAN LEADERS, RAPHEL OBSERVED CANDIDLY THAT THERE IS MUCH SUSPICION IN THE REGION ABOUT RUSSIAN MOTIVES AND INTENTIONS. RUSSIA IS NOT KEEN TO ACQUIESCE IN THE REGION'S INDEPENDENCE, SAY THE CENTRAL ASIANS, WHO ADD THAT THEY KNOW PRIMAKOV AND BELIEVE THAT HIS JOB AS FOREIGN MINISTER IS TO RESTORE THE EMPIRE. THE U.S. BELIEVES THAT RUSSIA'S LEGITIMATE INTERESTS IN STABILITY AND SECURE BORDERS ARE NOT INCONSISTENT WITH CENTRAL ASIAN INDEPENDENCE AND SOVEREIGNTY, SAID RAPHEL. THE U.S. HAS NO OBJECTION TO CIS INTEGRATION, SHE CONCLUDED, AS LONG AS IT IS VOLUNTARY AND DOES NOT COMPROMISE SOVEREIGNTY OR CREATE BARRIERS TO POLITICAL AND ECONOMIC RELATIONS WITH COUNTRIES OUTSIDE THE CIS. RAPHEL'S RUSSIAN INTERLOCUTORS DID NOT COMMENT ON HER REMARKS. (COMMENT: MANY -- THOUGH NOT ALL -- RUSSIANS RECOGNIZE THE IMAGE PROBLEM THEY HAVE IN THE "NEAR ABROAD," BUT IT STILL IRKS THEM TO HEAR ABOUT IT. END COMMENT.)
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TAJIKISTAN
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13. (C) UNDERSCORING THAT THE TAJIK CEASEFIRE EXPIRES MAY 26, CHERNYSHEV EXPRESSED DISMAY AT THE DEALY IN RESUMING THE INTER-TAJIK PEACE TALKS. NEITHER SIDE SEEMS IN ANY HURRY TO RESUME THE NEGOTIATIONS, HE SAID, [extensively redacted] OF THE TAJOPP INTO THE POLITICAL LIFE OF THE [redacted] A/S RAPHEL COMMENTED THAT THE U.S. SHARES RUSSIA'S DESIRE TO GET THE CEASEFIRE EXTENDED AND THE TALKS RECONVENED AS SOON AS POSSIBLE.
It is important to consider Moscow's perspective: some of this unrest had spread into Tajikistan, and Russian troops were there assisting the Tajik government with the security situation.
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INDIA: KASHMIRE AND NUCLEAR TESTING
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14. (C) THE MEETING CLOSED WITH A DISCUSSION OF OTHER SOUTH ASIAN TOPICS, PRINCIPALLY RELATED TO INDIA. THE ASSISTANT SECRETARY EXPRESSED HER SENSE THAT THE INDIAN COUNTERINSURGENCY CAMPAIGN IN KASHMIR IS WORKING, GIVING NEW DEHLI A WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY TO MAKE SOME POSITIVE POLITICAL MOVES TOWARD THE KASHMIRIS AFTER THE INDIAN ELECTIONS. [extensively redacted]
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COMMENT
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[redacted]
18. (U) THIS MESSAGE HAS BEEN CLEARED BY A/S RAPHEL.
PICKERING
ADMIN
END OF MESSAGE CONFIDENTIAL
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